India’s fighter jet fleet, once significantly superior in the region, is now alarmingly close in numbers to that of Pakistan, creating strategic unease in defence circles. Experts warn that continued delays in acquisitions, coupled with sluggish upgrades and bureaucratic red tape in Delhi, are eroding the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) combat edge, particularly when India must balance simultaneous threats from both Pakistan and China.
The IAF is now reportedly operating with just 29–30 squadrons, well short of the sanctioned strength of 42 squadrons required to effectively counter a two-front war scenario. In comparison, Pakistan has been steadily modernising its fleet with Chinese support, fielding an estimated 24 squadrons, while China possesses well over 1,500 fourth and fifth-generation fighter aircraft.
India, meanwhile, has been slow to ramp up fighter aircraft production and acquisition, despite repeated approvals and budget allocations. Strategic experts warn that unless corrective measures—similar to China’s high-speed military industrialisation—are adopted, India risks falling into a severe capability gap.
Numbers That Tell the Story: India vs Pakistan vs China Fighter Strength
| Country | Approximate Fighter Strength | Major Fighters in Use | New Inductions Expected (2025–2030) |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | ~570 fighters (29-30 squadrons) | Su-30 MKI, Mirage 2000, Rafale, MiG-29, Tejas Mk1 | Tejas Mk1A, MRFA (pending), AMCA (in planning) |
| Pakistan | ~410 fighters (24 squadrons) | JF-17 (Block I-III), F-16, Mirage III/V | More JF-17 Block III, J-10C |
| China | 1,500+ fighters | J-10C, J-16, J-20, Su-35, J-11, J-15 | J-20B stealth jets, upgraded J-16s |
India’s combat jet crunch has become particularly evident as legacy MiG-21 squadrons are rapidly phased out. Although the indigenous HAL Tejas programme offers promise, production has been relatively slow, with just a few squadrons operational after two decades of development.
Red Tape and Delays: The Heart of the Problem
A significant cause of India’s shortfall is the bureaucratic gridlock surrounding defence procurement. Multiple files—related to the procurement of 114 Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA), additional Tejas Mk1A units, and the development of the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA)—have been stuck in procedural loops, ranging from cost negotiations to committee evaluations and inter-ministerial clearance delays.
Several defence officials and experts note that even after obtaining Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) clearance, major programmes get stalled in the Ministry of Defence’s implementation stage.
“The biggest adversary to India’s fighter jet strength is not across the border—it’s inside the system,” a senior Air Force official stated on condition of anonymity.
India’s Tactical Stop-Gaps vs Long-Term Strategy
In response to the capability crunch, India has resorted to short-term fixes such as overhauling existing fleets, prolonging service life of older jets like MiG-29s and Mirage 2000s, and attempting limited-scale acquisitions from abroad.
However, sector experts warn that these stop-gap measures will not be sufficient for maintaining regional air dominance.
| Program | Status | Projected Induction Timeline | Bottlenecks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tejas Mk1A (83 jets) | Contract signed | 2024–2030 | HAL production capacity |
| MRFA (114 jets) | RFP pending | 2028–2035 | Global tender complexity, MoD delays |
| AMCA Stealth Fighter | Design finalised (Phase I) | 2032–2040 | Technology development, funding, approvals |
| Su-30 MKI Upgrade | Approved (latest batch) | 2025–2028 | HAL production & IAF specs finalisation |
Lessons from China: Rapid Industrialisation Model
China’s aircraft production ecosystem, centralised under the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC), is geared towards speed and volume. By contrast, India’s reliance on HAL as the sole fighter jet manufacturer limits scalability.
China produces multiple aircraft lines simultaneously and invests heavily in domestic R&D, allowing it to field aircraft like the J-20 stealth fighter, a fifth-generation aircraft, at a much faster rate than India’s AMCA timeline.
“What India needs is a fast-track parallel production ecosystem, with at least two or three private sector players licensed to build fighters under transfer of technology,” says defence analyst Lt. Gen. R. Sharma (Retd).
Budget Is Not the Problem—Execution Is
India’s defence budget allocation for capital acquisition has steadily increased over the last decade, but actual spending and delivery rates continue to lag due to procedural inefficiencies.
| Year | Capital Budget for IAF (INR Cr) | Actual Utilisation (%) | Key Pending Deals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021–22 | ₹53,214 | ~88% | Tejas Mk1A, MRFA, Su-30 upgrades |
| 2022–23 | ₹57,137 | ~85% | AESA radars, missiles, MRO support |
| 2023–24 | ₹62,343 | ~82% | AMCA phase funding, engine tech |
Despite funds being available, implementation remains slow due to procedural hurdles, delayed file clearances, and inter-ministry coordination gaps.
Strategic Risks of Capability Parity with Pakistan
The prospect of India’s fighter fleet nearing parity with Pakistan’s in squadron numbers is a worrying development. Even though India’s aircraft are generally more advanced in avionics and range, numerical inferiority in a conflict can complicate strategic planning.
With Pakistan receiving advanced fighters like the J-10C and upgrading its JF-17 fleet to Block III standards with AESA radars and beyond-visual-range (BVR) capabilities, the gap in technological edge is also narrowing.
Additionally, Chinese-made jets are becoming more interoperable between Pakistan and China, which could enhance their tactical coordination in a two-front conflict.
Urgency to Act: The Next 5 Years Are Critical
Experts argue that India must act decisively over the next five years to stabilise its fighter strength. With three more MiG-21 squadrons set for retirement and delays in Tejas and MRFA acquisitions, the IAF could dip below 28 squadrons by 2027—a dangerously low number for a nation with two nuclear-armed adversaries.
Recommendations from strategic circles include:
- Fast-track selection and negotiation for MRFA without floating a global tender again.
- Ramp up HAL’s production from 16 to at least 24 Tejas units per year.
- Finalise AMCA prototype timelines with milestone-based funding.
- License private sector giants like Tata or Adani to build under technology-sharing agreements.
Conclusion: India’s Fighter Fleet Faces a Critical Inflection Point
The declining number of operational fighter squadrons, coupled with bureaucratic inertia, puts India at risk of losing air superiority—a critical component of modern warfare. While India continues to maintain qualitative superiority over Pakistan, that edge is narrowing, and China’s rapid military modernisation looms large.
Unless India transitions toward a China-style fast-paced, industry-driven military aviation model and eliminates the layers of red tape currently stalling progress, the gap will widen. Strategic air power must remain a top priority, and action—not just announcements—is the need of the hour.
Disclaimer: This news article is intended for informational purposes only. All defence data, figures, and projections are based on available public domain information and expert analysis. Strategic developments are subject to change based on evolving geopolitical and security conditions.
