India has emerged as the bright spot in the global steel industry, maintaining consistent production growth while other major economies struggle with stagnation. According to a recent report by Jefferies, India’s steel output surged 33% between 2019 and 2024, contrasting with a 1% decline in global production.
Key Growth Drivers
- Infrastructure Boom: Strong demand from construction, power, and manufacturing sectors is fueling growth.
- Government Safeguard Duty: A 12% safeguard duty on flat steel imports, imposed in April 2025, has helped stabilize domestic prices.
- Volume Expansion: Indian steel companies are expected to achieve an 8–10% volume CAGR over FY25–27, reinforcing their global competitiveness.
Market Trends & Industry Outlook
Despite pricing pressures from Chinese imports, India’s steel sector has rebounded, with prices climbing 14% year-to-date. Jefferies forecasts steel prices to average ₹52,000–₹53,000 per tonne in FY26 and FY27, slightly below current levels.
Stock Market Impact
Jefferies has upgraded JSW Steel to ‘Buy’ and maintains strong ratings for Tata Steel and Jindal Stainless, citing healthy volume growth and potential margin expansion. The brokerage firm projects a 23% upside for Tata Steel, with a target price of ₹200 per share.
Future Prospects
With India’s steel consumption growing at a 7–8% CAGR, the country is set to strengthen its position in global trade networks. The government’s focus on industrial expansion and infrastructure development will further support long-term growth.
