A new intelligence report has raised serious concerns in Washington, revealing that Pakistan is secretly developing a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that could potentially reach the continental United States. The revelation, published by Foreign Affairs and citing US intelligence sources, marks a significant escalation in Pakistan’s strategic weapons program and could redefine its global standing.
From Regional Deterrence to Global Reach
Historically, Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine has focused on deterring India, its primary regional rival. However, the development of an ICBM—defined as a missile with a range exceeding 5,500 km—signals a dramatic shift in intent and capability. The US currently considers only Russia, China, and North Korea as nuclear adversaries with ICBMs capable of targeting American soil. If Pakistan joins this list, Washington may be forced to officially designate it as a nuclear adversary.
Fallout from Operation Sindoor
The report suggests that Pakistan’s ICBM ambitions may have been accelerated in response to India’s Operation Sindoor, which targeted terror infrastructure deep inside Pakistani territory. US officials believe Islamabad may be seeking to deter not only India but also potential US intervention in future conflicts.
China’s Shadow and Sanctions
The development is reportedly being supported by Chinese technology and materials, raising further red flags in Washington. In response, the US has already imposed sanctions on Pakistan’s National Development Complex (NDC) and three other entities for their role in the long-range missile program.
Global Repercussions and Diplomatic Fallout
The US has warned that Pakistan’s pursuit of ICBMs could destabilize global non-proliferation efforts. Pakistan, which is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), currently holds an estimated 170 nuclear warheads. The move has also prompted calls from Indian officials for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to monitor Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal more closely.
What’s Next?
With tensions rising, the Biden administration is reportedly reviewing its South Asia strategy, while India is expected to raise the issue at upcoming FATF and UN forums. Analysts warn that Pakistan’s ICBM development could trigger a new arms race in the region and complicate US efforts to manage nuclear threats from multiple fronts.
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