The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to announce a record surplus transfer to the government, potentially exceeding ₹2.50 lakh crore, at its upcoming board meeting in Mumbai on May 23, 2025.
This will be the first board meeting chaired by Financial Services Secretary Sanjay Malhotra, where the quantum of the surplus transfer will be finalized. The decision follows a review of the Economic Capital Framework (ECF) on May 15, which determines the buffer the RBI must maintain against financial risks.
Economists anticipate the surplus transfer to range between ₹2.50 lakh crore and ₹3.50 lakh crore, driven by the central bank’s aggressive dollar sales to stabilize the rupee and bond purchases to ease liquidity. In FY24, the RBI had raised its Contingency Risk Buffer (CRB) to 6.5% while still delivering a ₹2.11 lakh crore dividend.
Finance Ministry officials have indicated that the FY26 budget has already factored in ₹2.56 lakh crore from the RBI, public sector banks, and financial institutions. A higher-than-expected dividend could provide additional fiscal headroom for the government, helping offset revenue losses from income tax slab changes and rebates.
The upcoming board meeting will be crucial in determining whether the RBI maintains its existing surplus transfer framework or introduces modifications to its economic capital policy.
