Despite recent public affirmations of friendship between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump, India–US trade relations have entered a turbulent phase. On September 7, 2025, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dropped a diplomatic bombshell by calling for “secondary tariffs” on countries that continue purchasing Russian oil—India being one of the largest among them. Hours later, President Trump confirmed he was “ready” for another round of sanctions on Russia, implicitly signaling that India could face further tariff hikes.
The remarks come just days after Trump and Modi exchanged warm messages on social media, with Modi calling the US–India partnership “forward-looking and comprehensive.” However, the camaraderie appears to be overshadowed by Washington’s aggressive push to collapse Russia’s economy through economic isolation. India, which has maintained its energy imports from Russia citing sovereign interests, now finds itself in the crosshairs of a sanctions strategy that could have far-reaching consequences for its export-driven sectors.
🧭 Timeline of US–India Tariff Escalation Linked to Russia Sanctions
| Date | Event Description | Outcome / Impact |
|---|---|---|
| August 6, 2025 | Trump signs Executive Order 14329 | Additional 25% tariff on Indian goods |
| August 27, 2025 | Tariffs come into effect | Total US import duties on Indian goods reach 50% |
| September 7, 2025 | Bessent calls for secondary sanctions on Russian oil buyers | India named as key target |
| September 7, 2025 | Trump confirms readiness for “phase two” sanctions | India braces for further economic pressure |
The tariff escalation is part of a broader US strategy to force Russia into negotiations over the war in Ukraine.
🔍 Why India Is in the Crosshairs of US Sanctions Strategy
| Factor | Description | Strategic Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Russian Oil Imports | India remains a top buyer of Russian crude | Viewed as undermining Western sanctions |
| Trade Surplus with US | India exports $87 billion annually to US | Tariffs target high-volume sectors |
| Strategic Autonomy | India’s neutral stance on Ukraine war | US sees it as non-cooperative |
| Diplomatic Messaging | “Modi’s war” rhetoric from US officials | Tariffs used as leverage against Putin |
India has defended its energy purchases as essential for national interest and economic stability.
📉 Sector-Wise Impact of 50% Tariffs on Indian Exports
| Sector | Estimated Export Value Affected (USD Billion) | Key Export Hubs in India |
|---|---|---|
| Textiles & Apparel | $18.2 | Tirupur, Surat, Ludhiana |
| Gems & Jewelry | $11.5 | Mumbai, Jaipur |
| Leather Goods | $9.3 | Kanpur, Chennai |
| Engineering Goods | $12.5 | Jalandhar, NCR, Pune |
| Pharmaceuticals | $7.8 | Hyderabad, Ahmedabad |
Exporters are reporting order cancellations, margin erosion, and supply chain disruptions.
🔥 Trump’s Mixed Messaging on India: From Praise to Pressure
| Date | Statement by Trump | Tone / Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Sept 1 | “India sells us massive amounts… one-sided disaster” | Critical of trade imbalance |
| Sept 5 | “We’ve lost India and Russia to China” | Alarmist, geopolitical concern |
| Sept 6 | “Modi is a great PM… we’ll always be friends” | Diplomatic reassurance |
| Sept 7 | “Yeah, I am” (on phase two sanctions) | Confirms escalation |
Trump’s fluctuating stance reflects internal tensions between strategic partnership and economic coercion.
🧠 Expert Commentary on US–India Trade Tensions
| Expert Name | Role | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Meera Iyer | Trade Policy Analyst | “Tariffs are being weaponized to enforce geopolitical compliance.” |
| Rajiv Bansal | Strategic Affairs Consultant | “India must balance sovereignty with economic pragmatism.” |
| Dr. Rakesh Sinha | Historian of India–US Relations | “This is a test of the resilience of the Modi–Trump equation.” |
Experts warn that prolonged tariff pressure could push India closer to alternative trade blocs.
📦 India’s Diplomatic and Economic Response
| Response Type | Description | Status / Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| WTO Complaint | India may challenge tariffs under WTO rules | Under legal review |
| Diversification Drive | Exporters exploring EU, ASEAN, West Asia markets | Early-stage transition |
| Strategic Messaging | Modi calls for “mutual respect” in partnerships | Signals discomfort with coercive diplomacy |
| Bilateral Talks | No formal trade dialogue scheduled | Awaiting US clarity on phase two sanctions |
India has emphasized its commitment to peace and energy security, without aligning with either bloc.
📅 Upcoming Milestones in India–US Trade and Diplomacy
| Event | Date | Strategic Importance |
|---|---|---|
| UNGA General Debate | September 27 | India may raise concerns over tariff regime |
| G20 Trade Ministers’ Meet | October 2025 | Forum for multilateral pressure on US |
| Indo-US Strategic Dialogue | January 2026 | Possible reset in bilateral trade ties |
| WTO Ministerial Conference | March 2026 | Legal challenge to tariff hikes possible |
These events will shape the trajectory of India–US relations amid rising economic friction.
📌 Conclusion
The Trump administration’s push for secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil has placed India in a precarious position, despite the optics of a strong Modi–Trump friendship. With 50% tariffs already in place and threats of further escalation looming, India faces a critical juncture in balancing its strategic autonomy with economic interests. As global alliances shift and trade tensions mount, the resilience of India–US ties will be tested like never before.
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Disclaimer: This article is based on publicly available news reports, government statements, and expert commentary as of September 8, 2025. It is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute diplomatic or legal advice.
